And then there were Sixteen

Here we go. After a regular season that ended Saturday night at Richmond, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase is now upon us. Sixteen drivers all vying for NASCAR’s ultimate prize. Here’s how I see it.

The round of sixteen (Chicago, New Hampshire, Dover): As much as Chris Buescher is everybody’s underdog pick and a tremendous feel good story, his road will end here. Finishing top 20 will not get you much now. Tony Stewart and his fans would like nothing more than to go out a winner but the Smoke clears during this round. Austin Dillon’s recent finishes at these three tracks is not very good. He’ll have to change that drastically if he is to survive the opening round. Chase Elliot has limped home down the stretch. The young driver has only averaged a 20th place finish in his last 10 Sprint Cup races.

Out: Buescher, Stewart, Dillon, and Elliot

The round of twelve (Charlotte, Kansas, Talladega) By far the most challenging to predict, mainly because of the restrictor plate race at Talladega). While it’s true that anyone can win that race it’s also true anyone can be caught up in the “Big One”. I’d write this one down in pencil and keep my eraser nearby. The Hendrick team has just not been able to match the speed of the Gibbs Toyota’s or the Penske Ford’s this season. It seems odd for me to pick Jimmie Johnson as not advancing given his past accomplishments but his journey for number 7 ends here. Speaking of past Champions, Kevin Harvick has had pit road issues all season long. The odds are they will rear their ugly head sooner or later and I’m saying sooner. If there is trouble on the track, it seems Matt Kenseth will find it. Hard to predict tough luck but that’s what I’m doing here. Kurt Busch has been Mr. Consistent all season. In the Chase sometimes you have to be better than that.

Out: Johnson, Harvick, Kenseth, Kurt Busch

The round of eight (Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix) Hard to believe I chose Johnson, Harvick and Kenseth to be eliminated before the Chip Ganassi duo of Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray. Probably not the smartest thing I’ve ever done but Ganassi will wave goodbye to his Championship aspirations here. Larson enters the Chase hot as a pistol and McMurray has been Mr. Consistent all season long but the competition is pretty stiff and their recent race history in Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix pales in comparison to the other contenders. Joey Logano races everybody hard and drivers have great memories. He’ll have a tough time getting out of this round. Kyle Busch is a superstar. Its going to be real hard for him to repeat as Champion. The odds are against it. I’m taking the odds.

Out: Logano, McMurray, Larson, Kyle Busch

The Championship Race at Homestead. Four drivers left standing. Keselowski, Edwards, Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin all capable of winning at Homestead. Denny Hamlin might just be the best driver on the circuit who has not won a Sprint Cup Championship. It most likely will take a win for a driver to hoist the Sprint Cup trophy after this race. Hamlin has won here before. The Gibbs cars have been the class of the field all season long and Hamlin is just the guy to carry them home.

Thanks for reading. Listen to WTBQ radio on Monday and Friday mornings at 8:45 as I join Frank, Taylor and the Morning Show gang to discuss all the current happenings in NASCAR. You can also follow me on twitter @JimLaplante.