And then there were Eight
In the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament we’d be calling the remaining Sprint Cup Chase contenders the Elite Eight. I’m not sure that’s quite accurate here as any NASCAR field minus Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski falls a bit short in this authors eyes. Maybe not elite but still pretty darn good. That’s it! The pretty darn good eight!
So after trimming the field from 40 to 16, we now have a battle between 8 drivers all hoping to be one of the 4 cars with a chance at the trophy at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Here’s how I see it.
Kurt Busch – Kurt has been one of the most consistant rides throughout the season. Top 10’s after top 10’s. That’s pretty good but most likely not good enough to advance. Kurt will need to win a race in this round and his best chance may be in Martinsville on Sunday. My money says he falls short.
Matt Kenseth – Like Kurt Busch, Matt has been a model of consistency for most of the season. Unlike Kurt, Matt is very capable of winning a race. It’s really difficult to bet against any of the Joe Gibbs cars but Matt will probably have to win a race in this segment to advance. 15 11 and 7 Kenseth finished the spring race at Martinsville in 15th place. The next two races in this segment in Texas (11th place) and Phoenix (7th place) weren’t much better. Certainly not good enough to advance with this field.
Joey Logano – Yeah I know he’s coming off a huge performance at Talladega last Sunday but there is no other restrictor plate tracks on the NASCAR’s final stretch of races. The Penske boys have figure out the restrictor plate races but other than those four races, the Penske team just seems to lack the speed week to week to compete with the Gibbs group. He’ll need a win in these three races and Texas should provide him with his best chance. He’ll fall just short.
Kevin Harvick – I really think the last cut comes between Harvick and Denny Hamlin. There is no better clutch driver in the series than Harvick. When you absolutely must win, he’s your guy. We’ve seen it time and again from this team. I think he’s going to need a win at Phoenix and he’s absolutely owned that place in the past. Not out of the question that Happy Harvick does it again. I just think the odds are against him to do it again.
So that leaves my fabulous four and they are indeed fabulous.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin had an absolutely disastrous day at Martinsville Speedway in the spring, finishing a horrendous 39th. He’s a much better short track racer than that. He’s won 5 times at Martinsville and has an average finish there of 9.5. He ran well in the spring race at Phoenix finishing 3rd and the Gibbs cars ought to be real solid at Texas given their speed.
Jimmie Johnson – All season long we watched the Hendrick cars struggle to find the speed to compete with the Joe Gibbs cars. At the start of the Chase we saw the #48 team finally find it. I’m not totally convinced old six-time is prepared to knock off the Gibbs boys but that team always has a fighting chance.
Carl Edwards – If you’re a fan of Carl the old back flipper you have to be happy with this team’s chances. This cars been fast all year. The crew makes minimal mistakes. They are racing at tracks which seem to favor Edward’s style of driving. I think we’ll be hearing from Mr. Edwards come Homestead time.
Kyle Busch – Kyle is this sports next Superstar. Want to know why he’s my favorite to advance? How about finishes of 1st (Martinsville), 1st (Texas) and 4th (Phoenix). There’s not much an opponent can do to top that. Busch and his #18 Toyota team are the team to beat. It should be fun.
Thanks for reading. Listen to WTBQ radio on Monday and Friday mornings at 8:45 as I join Frank, Taylor and the Morning Show gang to discuss all the current happenings in NASCAR. You can also follow me on twitter @JimLaplante
